From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 9/23/2026
Yesterday we saw a sharp increase in Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield reached an intraday high near 5.15% before closing around 5.10%, its highest closing level since 2007. Treasury yields opened this morning modestly lower, while the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were all trading lower in early activity. Futures markets are pricing in roughly a 64% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the October FOMC meeting.
Yesterday's stronger-than-expected S&P Global PMI reports contributed to the rise in Treasury yields and reinforced expectations that economic activity remains firm. WTI crude oil is trading near $94.71 per barrel after opening yesterday at $89.27, its lowest level of the week. Although WTI remains below its September high of $106.75, oil prices remain a concern for inflation.
Initial jobless claims totaled 197,000 for the week ending September 19, below expectations of 201,000 and little changed from the prior week's revised reading of 198,000. Continuing claims were 1.719 million, below expectations of 1.745 million and compared with a revised 1.717 million the previous week. Labor market data continue to show limited signs of deterioration, a trend that has helped keep expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening in place.
Sales of new single-family homes increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August from 643,000 in July, exceeding consensus expectations near 619,000. Inventory totaled 483,000 homes, unchanged from July, while months' supply declined to 8.5 months from 9.0 months. The median sales price increased to $393,700 from $392,200 in July but remained below the $417,900 median price recorded one year earlier. The stronger-than-expected sales pace suggests that housing demand has remained resilient despite elevated mortgage rates.
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