From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 12/3/2025
U.S. stocks are mixed Wednesday as investors digest the latest labor report. The DJIA is higher, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are lower. The ADP report further cemented the belief that the Fed will cut rates next week, with markets placing the chances at nearly 89% this morning.
Looking at economic data today, the ADP Employment Report showed that private payrolls unexpectedly fell by 32,000 in November, versus expectations of increasing 40,000. Payrolls increased by 47,000 the previous month. The report also showed that pay for those who stayed at their job increased 4.4% over the last year, down 0.1% from October.
The delayed September report showed that both import prices and export prices were unchanged for the month. Over the last year, import prices were up 0.3%, the first annual increase since March. Export prices were up 3.8 over the last year, the biggest year-over-year increase since December 2022.
The delayed September report for industrial production showed the index increased 0.1% for the month, matching expectations. Production slipped 0.3% in the previous reading. The manufacturing sector was unchanged for the month. Capacity utilization was unchanged for the month at 75.9%.
Lastly, the ISM Services PMI edged higher to a reading of 52.6% in November, just above expectations of 52.5%. It was the ninth time this year the sector expanded. Business activity and new orders expanded, while employment contracted.
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