From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 8/12/2026
U.S. equity markets are moving higher this morning after the latest inflation data came in largely as expected, easing concerns about near-term Federal Reserve policy. Investor sentiment is also being supported by strong earnings and guidance from several AI-related companies reinforcing confidence in ongoing infrastructure spending. Markets appear encouraged that the July inflation report did not show any significant acceleration in price pressures, helping support expectations that the Federal Reserve may leave rates unchanged at its September meeting.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% in July, following a 0.4% decline in June. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation measured 3.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% during the month and 2.5% from a year earlier. Both the headline and core annual inflation rates edged lower from June levels and matched market expectations.
The latest MBA Weekly Applications Survey showed mortgage demand improved as interest rates moved slightly lower. Total mortgage application volume increased 3.6% from the previous week, marking the first increase in three weeks. The Refinance Index rose 5%, while the Purchase Index increased 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined to 6.77% from 6.81%, a modest improvement after rates had recently reached their highest level in a year.
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