From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 6/16/2026
U.S. equity markets are trading little changed this morning as investors pause following recent gains and turn their attention to the start of the FOMC meeting. Early trading has been mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq turning negative, while the DJIA is trading higher. The relatively muted tone follows a strong prior session driven a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with the DJIA reaching a new record high. However, uncertainty remains around the details of the ceasefire agreement and the Fed’s policy outlook, keeping investors cautious in the near term.
Housing activity weakened notably in May, with housing starts falling 15.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million units, well below expectations and the lowest level since 2020. The decline was driven largely by a sharp drop in multifamily construction, which fell to 284,000 units, while single family starts declined more modestly by 1.9% to 882,000. On a year-over-year basis, total starts were down 8.7%.
Building permits, which are a leading indicator of future activity, slipped 0.7% to 1.413 million units, with a modest 0.6% increase in single family permits partially offset by declines in multifamily authorizations. Building permits are down 0.2% over the last year.
Trade-related price pressures remained elevated in May, with import and export price indexes both showing firm gains. U.S. import prices increased 1.9% during the month, driven largely by higher fuel costs, including a 12.5% increase in fuel import prices. Prices for imports excluding fuel also rose 0.8%, indicating broader price firming beyond energy. Export prices increased 1.3% in the month. Ove the last year, import prices were up 6.7% while export prices rose 11.2%.
Subscribe to our daily From the Desk newsletter to get economic commentaries and updated market rates sent directly to your inbox.
Subscribe Here