From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 10/27/2026
Treasury yields are higher this morning, oil prices are lower, and equity markets are mixed, with the DJIA slightly lower while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trade higher ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve policy announcement.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.7 in October from a revised 84.2 in September, reaching its highest level since June and exceeding all economist forecasts surveyed by Bloomberg. Respondents reported a more favorable view of business conditions and the labor market, with the share of consumers describing jobs as plentiful reaching a six-month high.
The U.S. Census Bureau's durable goods report showed orders increased by 1.8% in September following a revised 0.1% gain in August. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.5% after a 0.3% increase the previous month.
Housing data reflected the pressure created by higher mortgage rates, but demand has not disappeared. According to the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development, new home sales declined 0.6% in September to an annual rate of 676,000 units though sales exceeded expectations for approximately 650,000 units. The median sales price for new homes fell 3.9% from a year ago to $400,400, while inventory totaled 476,000 homes, representing 8.4 months of supply. The decline in median prices likely reflects builders continuing to use price concessions and financing incentives to attract buyers in a higher-rate environment.
Despite the decline in new home prices, broader home price measures continue to show appreciation. The FHFA House Price Index increased 0.3% in August, while the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index was up 2.7% from a year earlier, compared with 2.5% in the prior report.
The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting began today. No change in interest rates is widely expected tomorrow, but recent inflation readings, firm consumer activity, and generally resilient economic data have kept attention focused on the possibility of additional policy tightening before year-end.
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