From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Director of Institutional Strategies - 9/3/2026
U.S. stock indices are all higher this morning and Treasury yields are lower across the curve as the market continues to look ahead to Friday's Employment Situation Report, which remains the week's most important economic release.
Looking at economic data today, the ISM Services PMI increased to 55.4 in August from 54.1 in July, marking the twenty-sixth consecutive month of expansion. Business activity rose to 61.7 from 59.1, while new orders increased to 60.9 from 57.2. The employment index improved slightly to 47.8 from 47.4, but remained in contraction territory.
Initial jobless claims totaled 203,000 for the week ending August 29, matching the prior week's reading and coming in below expectations of 205,000. Claims remain near historically low levels and continue to indicate limited layoffs.
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $88.6 billion in July from a revised $71.2 billion in June. Exports declined $6.6 billion to $310.7 billion, while imports increased $10.8 billion to $399.3 billion. The increase resulted in a 24.4% expansion in the monthly trade deficit.
Revised second-quarter productivity data showed nonfarm business productivity increased at a 1.4% annualized rate, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Unit labor costs were revised slightly lower to a 1.2% annualized increase from the previously reported 1.3% pace
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