From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Hofer, Member Strategies Manager - 9/9/2026
U.S. stocks opened lower this morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all declining at the opening bell as investors reacted to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that pushed oil prices sharply higher and increased concerns about inflation and economic growth. Rising crude prices, including Brent crude briefly reaching the $100-per-barrel level, added pressure on equities alongside elevated Treasury yields ahead of key inflation data and next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Energy stocks outperformed, but broader market sentiment was risk-off as traders weighed the potential economic impact of higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey showed that U.S. mortgage applications fell 2.7% in the week ended September 4, reversing the prior week's 0.8% increase and signaling softer mortgage demand. The Refinance Index fell 6% from the previous week and the Purchase Index was down 0.2%. The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with conforming loan balances was up 6 bps to 6.85%. Overall application activity weakened as higher borrowing costs and affordability pressures continued to weigh on housing market interest. The decline suggests both home purchase and refinancing activity remained subdued heading into September, following generally choppy application trends in recent weeks.
ADP’s weekly employment update showed that U.S. private employers added an average of 12,000 jobs per week over the four weeks ending August 22, 2026, indicating modest but improving hiring activity. The report noted that hiring accelerated week over week, with the four-week moving average rising from 10,000 to 12,000 jobs. While job growth remains relatively subdued compared with earlier in the year, the improvement suggests the private labor market is still expanding rather than contracting. ADP emphasized that these figures are preliminary and may be revised as additional payroll data becomes available.
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