From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 10/07/2026
Treasury yields moved higher again this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to approximately 5.36%, its highest level since 2002. U.S. equity markets were lower in late-morning trading, with the Dow down roughly 500 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each declined about 0.6% to 0.7% as higher interest rates continued to pressure risk assets.
Mortgage rates continue to move higher alongside Treasury yields. The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 7.49% from 7.30% the previous week, the highest level since November 2023. Mortgage applications declined 4.2% during the week ended October 2, while purchase applications fell 2% and refinance activity dropped 8%. Refinance applications are now 56% below year-ago levels.
The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.6%. The combination of elevated inflation expectations, rising energy prices, and higher Treasury yields has remained a central focus for financial markets this week.
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