From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Director of Institutional Strategies - 8/31/2026
U.S. stocks are lower Monday morning following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Treasury yields are mixed across the curve, with short-term and long-term yields moving modestly higher after markets recalibrated expectations for the September FOMC meeting. At the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, Warsh reiterated the Federal Reserve's commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target and indicated additional policy action could be warranted if inflation does not moderate sufficiently. Following the speech, Fed funds futures increased the implied probability of a September rate hike to roughly 60%, up from approximately 35% to 40% before Jackson Hole.
Today's economic calendar is relatively light, but the pace picks up considerably as the week progresses. Tuesday's releases include the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings reports. ADP employment data follows on Wednesday, while the ISM Services PMI is scheduled for Thursday. The week's primary focus will be Friday's Employment Situation Report.
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