From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 10/30/2026
U.S. stocks are lower this morning, led by a sharp decline in technology shares following disappointing earnings reports and renewed concerns about AI related spending. Treasury yields are lower across the curve, while oil prices are higher as renewed tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about global supplies.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Cost Index increased 0.8% during the third quarter, matching expectations and slowing from a 0.9% increase in the second quarter. Compensation costs were up 3.4% from a year ago, unchanged from the second-quarter pace. Wages and salaries increased 0.7% during the quarter and 3.1% from a year ago, while benefit costs rose 0.9% during the quarter and 3.9% over the past year.
Business activity in the Chicago area slowed in October but remained in expansion. The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 55.3 from 58.8 in September and came in below expectations of 56.0. Production and new orders declined, while employment climbed to its highest level since April 2021. Prices paid increased to the highest level since December 2021, consistent with the inflation pressures seen in yesterday's PCE report, which showed both headline and core inflation remaining well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
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