From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 3/31/2026
U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday morning as investors were hopeful the war with Iran could end soon. Reports indicated the U.S. was willing to end the war despite the Straight of Hormuz remaining mostly shut down. All three major averages are up over 1% in early trading, led by the Nasdaq up over 2%. Stocks were mixed yesterday, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 lower, while the DJIA eked out a gain.
Home prices remained modestly higher on an annual basis in the latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index release for January. The U.S. National Index rose 0.9% year-over-year, marking continued deceleration in annual appreciation. On a month-over-month basis, national prices rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 20-City Composite posted a 1.2% annual gain, down from the prior month, while also increasing 0.2% month-over-month. Elsewhere, the FHFA House Price Index was up 0.1% in January and 1.6% over the last year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS report showed total job openings edged lower to 6.9 million, coming in slightly below expectations and reversing trend from the January increase. Hires declined to 4.8 million, while total separations changed little, indicating reduced labor churn. Quits remained subdued, signaling softer worker confidence, while layoffs and discharges stayed relatively low.
Consumer sentiment unexpectedly edged higher in March, according to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released this morning. The headline index rose to 91.8, exceeding expectations and marking a second consecutive monthly increase. The Present Situation Index climbed to 123.3, while the Expectations Index declined to 70.9, remaining well below the 80 threshold that has historically been associated with elevated recession risk.
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