From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 9/15/2026
U.S. equity markets are lower this morning while Treasury yields remain near their highest levels in nearly two decades ahead of tomorrow's Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly traded above 5.0% yesterday and is trading above that level again this morning, reaching its highest level since July 2007.
The Federal Reserve's policy decision is expected to be the primary market focus. Fed funds futures currently imply a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at this week's meeting. Futures pricing also suggests markets expect one to two additional rate increases before year-end.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey declined to 7.6 in September from 20.6 in August and came in below expectations of 14.1. Despite the decline, the index remained above zero, indicating that manufacturing activity in New York State continues to expand, though at a slower pace than the previous month.
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