From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 4/14/2026
U.S. equities are higher Tuesday, extending gains from the prior session as investor sentiment remains resilient despite ongoing geopolitical developments. Markets have continued to show limited reaction to the breakdown in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, with trading guided more by domestic economic data and corporate fundamentals than headline risk. The S&P 500 closed Monday having fully recovered losses incurred earlier in the conflict, suggesting that investors view the situation as contained for now.
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5% in March, following a similar increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices were up 4.0%, marking the largest annual gain since early 2023. The monthly increase was driven primarily by a 1.6% rise in goods prices, led by higher energy costs, while prices for final demand services were unchanged. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, core producer prices increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year earlier, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remain elevated but more moderate outside of volatile components.
Small business sentiment weakened in March as rising uncertainty weighed on owner expectations. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 3.0 points to 95.8, falling below its long-term average of 98 for the first time in nearly a year. Most of the index’s components declined, with notable weakness in expectations for real sales and overall business conditions. At the same time, the NFIB Uncertainty Index rose to 92, well above its historical norm, reflecting heightened concerns related to higher energy prices, input costs, and broader geopolitical developments.
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