From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Director of Institutional Strategies - 8/27/2026
U.S. stocks are modestly higher Thursday morning, with the Nasdaq leading gains while the DJIA is little changed. Attention is increasingly turning to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first keynote address tomorrow. Market participants will be looking for additional insight into his views on inflation and the interest rate outlook ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Markets currently place the probability of a September rate increase in the 30% to 40% range, down from roughly 50% to 55% a week ago following a series of softer economic reports.
Initial jobless claims fell to 203,000 for the week ending August 22, down from the prior week's revised reading of207,000 and below expectations of 208,000. Continuing claims declined to 1.778 million from a revised 1.796 million. The latest data suggest layoffs remain limited and labor market conditions continue to show little sign of deterioration.
The Census Bureau's advance trade report showed the U.S. goods trade deficit widened to $118.8 billion in July from $101.4 billion in June. Exports declined $6.0 billion to $199.4 billion, while imports increased $11.4 billion to $318.2 billion. The report also showed wholesale inventories increased 1.3%, while retail inventories rose 0.7% during the month.
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