From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 4/24/2025
U.S. stocks are higher Thursday morning as equities look to continue their winning streak. All three major averages are coming off two straight days of gains after falling on Monday. Investors continue to monitor the progress of trade talks, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying Wednesday the U.S. had an “opportunity for a big deal” with China. China said overnight there were no trade talks with the U.S. currently, stating there had been no progress and that unilateral tariffs should be canceled.
Looking at economic data today, existing home sales fell 5.9% in March to an annual rate of 4.02 million, missing expectations of 4.13 million. Sales were at 4.27 million the previous month. Over the last year, the median sales price increased 2.7% to $403,700, the highest ever level for the month of March. The inventory of existing homes for sale rose 8.1% from the previous month, equivalent to 4.0 months’ supply.
Initial jobless claims increased to 222,000, just above expectations of 220,000. Initial claims were at 216,000 the previous week. Continuing claims fell by 37,000 to 1.841 million.
Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% in March, well above expectations of 1.6% and the biggest monthly gain since July 2024. It was also the second largest monthly gain of the last five years. Transportation jumped 27% due to nondefense aircraft and parts soaring by 139%. Capital goods orders, which most closely resemble the business investment component of U.S. GDP, was up 0.1% for the month.
U.S. Treasury yields are lower this morning this morning, with the 2-year Treasury down 5.4% basis points to 3.81%, the 5-year Treasury yield down 7.3 basis points to 3.94%, and the 10-year Treasury yield down 7.2 basis points to 4.32%. The longest-term advance rates are slightly higher, while the rest of the curve is either flat or lower.
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