From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 10/05/2026
Treasury yields are modestly higher this morning following the release of service-sector data, while U.S. equity markets are mixed. The Nasdaq Composite reached a fresh record high, while the DJIA is trading lower and the S&P 500 is modestly higher. Oil prices are little changed from late last week, with WTI crude continuing to trade near $90 per barrel.
Service-sector activity was the primary focus of today's economic calendar. The final S&P Global U.S. Services PMI increased to 58.8 in September from 56.5 in August and exceeded expectations of 58.7. The accompanying Composite PMI rose to 58.4 from 56.0. Both readings were among the strongest reported in recent years. The Institute for Supply Management's Services PMI registered 54.9% in September, below expectations of 55.7% and down from 55.4% in August. While the ISM and S&P Global surveys use different respondent panels and methodologies, both remained comfortably above 50, indicating continued expansion in the services sector. The ISM Services PMI has now remained in expansion territory for 27 consecutive months.
Friday's employment report showed payroll growth of 29,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, contributing to the decline in Treasury yields late last week. Today's service-sector data has pushed yields modestly higher and suggests economic activity remains on firmer footing than the labor market report alone might imply. Markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to leave policy rates unchanged at its next meeting.
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