From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 6/18/2026
U.S. equity markets are trading higher this morning as investors rebound from the prior session’s losses following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The Fed held its benchmark rate steady, while signaling a more cautious stance with expectations for potential rate hikes later this year. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not participate in the dot plot rate forecast, calling the forecast unhelpful while stating all forms of FOMC communications would be reviewed by year-end. The recovery in equities is also being supported by easing oil prices and improving geopolitical sentiment after signs of progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 declined to 226,000, down 4,000 from the prior week’s revised 230,000, and roughly in line with expectations. The four-week moving average increased slightly to 223,250, indicating a modest upward trend in claims over recent weeks. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims rose by 24,000 to 1.81 million for the week ending June 6, marking the highest level in several months and suggesting some lengthening in unemployment duration.
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