From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 10/26/2026
No major U.S. economic reports were released this morning. The focus this week shifts to a heavy calendar that includes durable goods orders, new home sales, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, wholesale inventories, the FOMC rate decision, third-quarter GDP, personal income and spending, the PCE inflation index, and the Employment Cost Index. For interest rate markets, Wednesday's FOMC decision and Thursday's GDP and PCE reports are likely to carry the most significance.
Fed funds futures continue to indicate that a rate increase this week is unlikely. Current market pricing implies roughly a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at Wednesday's meeting. The probability of an additional 25 basis point increase at the December meeting remains elevated at just over 80%.
U.S. equity markets opened higher this morning following last week's decline. Treasury yields are mixed, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding just below 5%. Oil prices are lower on the day but remain near recent highs after a sharp run-up earlier this month.
Subscribe to our daily From the Desk newsletter to get economic commentaries and updated market rates sent directly to your inbox.
Subscribe Here