From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Hofer, Member Strategies Manager - 6/30/2026
U.S. stocks opened largely flat to slightly higher this morning, with only modest gains at the opening bell. The Dow edged up about 0.1%, while the S&P 500 rose roughly 0.3% and the Nasdaq gained close to 0.8% in early trading. The subdued movement reflects a market pausing after a strong prior-session rally that pushed major indexes higher. The modest upside at the open was supported by improved sentiment from easing U.S.–Iran tensions and strength in technology shares. However, gains were limited by caution around oil prices holding above $70 and mixed sector performance, including weakness in financial stocks.
Looking at jobs data, today’s JOLTS release showed a largely stable labor market, with job openings holding steady at 7.6 million in May, essentially unchanged from the prior month. Hires were also flat at 5.2 million, while total separations were little changed at 5.1 million, reinforcing a “low churn” environment. Within separations, quits remained steady at about 3.1 million, suggesting worker confidence is stable but not strengthening, and layoffs were unchanged at 1.7 million, indicating limited signs of labor market deterioration. Overall, the report points to a labor market that is cooling compared to prior peaks but not weakening materially, with both demand for workers and employee mobility holding steady.
Turning to consumer confidence, the Conference Board reported that U.S. consumer confidence edged up slightly in June, with the headline index rising to 91.2 from a revised 90.6 in May, indicating only a modest improvement in sentiment. The Present Situation Index fell, reflecting weaker perceptions of current labor market conditions, even as views on business conditions improved marginally. In contrast, the Expectations Index increased, driven by more optimism about future business conditions and household income despite little expected change in the labor market outlook. Notably, consumers reported worsening labor market perceptions, with the share saying jobs are “hard to get” rising to its highest level since early 2021. Overall, the report suggests confidence is stabilizing at subdued levels, with easing inflation pressures (e.g., lower oil prices) helping sentiment but offset by ongoing concerns about job availability and economic durability.
Regarding business activity, the Chicago PMI for June came in at 56.7, declining sharply from May’s 62.7 but still remaining in expansion territory above the 50 threshold. This reading modestly beat market expectations, signaling that business activity held up better than anticipated despite the slowdown. The drop was driven largely by weaker new orders and slower production, though these components remained in expansion and were partly offset by gains in employment, order backlogs, and supplier deliveries. Overall, the report points to continued but moderating growth in the Chicago region, indicating cooling momentum after May’s multi year high.
In housing, the April S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Home Price Index release showed that U.S. home price growth remained modest and continued a broader cooling trend in the housing market. Prices in the 20 city composite rose about 1.1% month over month in April, slightly faster than March, indicating some short term firmness despite sluggish underlying momentum. The report also pointed to regional divergence, with Midwestern and Northeastern cities continuing to post the strongest gains while several Western markets lag or decline. Overall, the release reinforces that while home prices are still rising nominally, higher mortgage rates and weaker demand are keeping appreciation subdued and, in inflation adjusted terms, housing values remain under pressure.
Rounding out the data releases today, the April FHFA House Price Index release showed that U.S. home prices edged down 0.1% month over month in April, signaling slightly negative short-term momentum after a small upward revision to March’s gain. At the same time, prices were still up 2.0% year over year, indicating continued but modest annual appreciation. Regional performance remained mixed, with monthly changes ranging from a 0.8% decline in the Mountain division to a 1.0% increase in New England, and annual gains varying widely from 0.2% to 4.4% across divisions. Overall, the data point to a housing market that is largely flat in the near term with slower, uneven growth nationally, rather than broad-based appreciation.
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