From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Director of Institutional Strategies - 8/24/2026
U.S. financial markets are beginning the week focused on developments in the Treasury market following reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may utilize a portion of the Treasury General Account (TGA), which currently holds approximately $950 billion, to help fund expanded purchases of longer-dated Treasury securities. The news is supporting the long end of the Treasury market this morning, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields moving modestly lower. U.S. stocks are mixed following the opening bell, with the DJIA modestly higher while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are slightly lower.
Economic data released this morning was limited to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), which declined to -0.08 in July from +0.06 in June and came in below expectations. The reading suggests economic activity continues to expand at a modest pace, though below its historical trend. Looking ahead, this week's economic calendar becomes considerably busier beginning tomorrow. Key reports this week include Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales on Tuesday, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, Core PCE inflation, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, and Personal Spending on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday. Wednesday's GDP and Core PCE reports are expected to be the week's most market-moving releases.
Markets are also evaluating the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade negotiations late last week. The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion of Canadian goods, while Canada has pledged retaliatory measures beginning September 8. Because the tariffs affect a relatively small share of bilateral trade, the direct impact on overall inflation and economic growth is expected to be limited unless the dispute broadens.
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