From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 9/23/2026
U.S. equity markets are modestly lower this morning. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain near record highs, trading approximately 0.6% and 0.8% below their recent peaks, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains about 4.6% below its August high. The divergence reflects continued strength in large-cap technology stocks relative to other market sectors. Treasury yields are higher across most maturities, with the 10-year Treasury yield again approaching 5.0%. Crude oil prices remain elevated, with Brent crude trading near $100 per barrel and WTI near $90.
S&P Global's September Flash Composite PMI Output Index increased to 58.4 from 56.0 in August, reaching its highest level in more than five years. The Flash Services PMI rose to 58.7 from 56.5, while the Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 57.0 from 53.9. Manufacturing output improved to 56.7 from 53.1. New orders accelerated in both the manufacturing and services sectors, employment growth strengthened to its fastest pace since mid-2022, and business backlogs increased at the fastest rate since May 2022. The survey also reported intensifying supply-chain delays and a sharp increase in input costs, driven in part by higher energy and transportation prices.
Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage applications declined 1.5% during the week ending September 18. The Purchase Index, which measures applications for mortgages used to purchase homes, fell 1.0%, while the Refinance Index declined 3.0% and was 62% lower than the same week a year ago. The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 7.12%, the highest level since May 2024. The share of applications using adjustable-rate mortgages increased to 9.8%, as the average rate on a 5/1 ARM declined to 6.10% from 6.23%.
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