From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 10/14/2026
Consumer prices increased 0.6% in September, matching expectations, while the year-over-year inflation rate accelerated to 3.7% from 3.4% in August and exceeded the 3.6% consensus estimate. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% during the month and 2.6% from a year ago, both slightly above expectations.
The gasoline index rose 9.1% during September and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in the headline CPI. Transportation services increased 0.6%, used car and truck prices rose 0.7%, and shelter costs increased 0.4%. Food prices were unchanged during the month.
Treasury yields are higher across the curve following the report. U.S. equity markets are mixed in early trading, with the DJIA higher while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have moved lower. WTI crude oil prices have continued to advance and are trading at their highest level in approximately one week. Fed funds futures have repriced sharply, with the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the October 27-28 meeting rising from roughly 22% yesterday to 53.7% this morning. Futures markets are also pricing in a 49% probability of an additional rate increase at the December meeting.
The September CPI report is the final inflation reading before the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting.
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