From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 9/29/2026
The Treasury curve steepened this morning. Yields from one month through one year moved lower, while yields from the two-year through thirty-year sectors moved modestly higher. U.S. equity markets are little changed from yesterday's close, and oil prices are lower in early trading.
Housing data released this morning by the FHFA showed that home price appreciation continued through July. The FHFA House Price Index increased 0.3% during the month following an unchanged June reading. Year-over-year, the index was up 2.6%. Housing prices in the Middle Atlantic region led the nation with a 6.3% year-over-year increase, while the Mountain region posted the slowest growth at 0.6%.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index increased 1.9% year-over-year in July, up from 1.6% in June. The 20-City Composite rose 2.5% from a year ago, while the 10-City Composite gained 3.4%. Chicago led the 20-city index with a 6.9% annual increase, followed by New York at 5.8%, while Seattle declined 1.6%.
Labor market data showed continued moderation in hiring demand. The JOLTS report indicated job openings declined to 7.1 million in August from an upwardly revised 7.3 million in July. Hires were little changed at 5.2 million, total separations held at 5.1 million, and quits remained steady at 3.1 million.
Consumer sentiment weakened considerably in September. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 from 88.6 in August. The Present Situation Index declined to 109.3 from 117.2, while the Expectations Index fell to 63.6 from 69.5. Consumer assessments of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024, and perceptions of labor market conditions also deteriorated. Survey respondents cited higher prices, particularly energy and gasoline costs, as a growing concern.
Today's data present a mixed picture of economic conditions. Home prices continue to rise at a modest pace nationally, while labor demand remains stable despite a gradual decline in job openings. At the same time, consumer confidence weakened sharply in September as households grew more cautious about business conditions, employment prospects, and inflation.
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