From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 9/11/2026
U.S. equity markets opened roughly 1% higher this morning following a four-session losing streak. Treasury yields remain elevated following yesterday's sharp move higher. Shorter maturities are marginally higher again this morning, while longer-term rates are down slightly but still above levels from earlier this week.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August, matching expectations but accelerating from a 0.1% increase in July. Headline year-over-year inflation remained unchanged at 3.4%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% this month, above expectations of 0.2% and up from a 0.2% increase in July. Year-over-year core inflation declined to 2.4% from 2.5% in July. Energy prices were a significant contributor to this month's increase in inflation. The gasoline component of the index rose 3.9% in August and accounted for more than one-third of the increase in headline CPI.
Fed fund futures now imply an 85.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the Fed meeting next week. That probability stood at 70% yesterday morning. Traders are also placing the odds of an additional rate increase at the December meeting at close to 60%.
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