From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 11/04/2026
Markets are reacting strongly to yesterday’s election results. The major equity indices are sharply higher, Treasury yields have moved higher across the curve, and WTI crude oil is down approximately 3%.
Economic data released this morning point to continued growth but persistent inflationary pressure. Private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations for a gain of 69,000. The ISM Services PMI edged down to 54.5 but remained firmly in expansion territory. Employment increased, while the prices index remained elevated at 73.0. Tariffs, fuel costs and slower supplier deliveries remain the most frequently cited sources of cost pressure.
The S&P Global US Services PMI declined to 56.1 from 58.8 but continued to show strong growth. Higher fuel prices raised transportation, food and other operating costs, while wages, utilities and insurance also increased. Strong demand and growing backlogs allowed service providers to raise selling prices at one of the fastest rates in the past four years.
Mortgage applications declined 1.2% last week. Purchase applications fell 2% and were 19% below the same week last year. Refinancing activity was nearly unchanged, rising 0.1% for the week but remaining 60% below the same week last year. The average conforming 30-year mortgage rate declined to 7.30% from 7.37%. The adjustable-rate mortgage share rose to a 14-month high as borrowers sought lower initial monthly payments.
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