From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Director of Institutional Strategies - 9/8/2026
U.S. equity markets are lower this morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down approximately 1.0%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are modestly lower. WTI crude oil is trading above $93 per barrel, up more than 2% today and roughly 10% from last Friday's close as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global energy markets.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 98.7 in August from 99.8 in July and came in below expectations of 99.4. Despite the decline, the index remains above its 12-month average reading of 98.0 and is only 1.1 points below July's reading, which is the highest reported level since August 2025.
Several underlying components of the Optimism Index weakened during the month. Expectations for better business conditions fell five points to a net 10%, while a net negative 9% of owners reported higher nominal sales over the prior three months, the weakest reading since November 2025. Reports of inflation as the single most important business problem increased to 16%, tying taxes as the second most cited concern among respondents. Labor quality and availability remain the most frequently reported concern among businesses.
The NFIB Uncertainty Index declined two points to 89 from 91. While lower than July, the index remains near its 12-month average reading of 90.2, indicating little change in the overall level of uncertainty reported by small business owners over the past year.
This week's primary economic reports are the August Producer Price Index on Thursday and the August Consumer Price Index on Friday. Those releases will provide updated information on inflation trends ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meetings.
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